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☆ GDP growth slowed to a 1.6% rate in the first quarter, well below expectations
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-25 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Consumer spending increased 2.5% in the period, down from a 3.3% gain in the fourth quarter and below the 3% Wall Street estimate. Net exports subtracted 0.86 percentage point from the growth rate while consumer spending contributed 1.68 percentage points. Excluding food and energy, core PCE prices rose at a 3.7% rate, both well above the Fed's 2% target. Income adjusted for taxes and inflation rose 1.1% for the period, down from 2%. Services spending increased 4%, its highest quarterly level since Q3 of 2021.

Persons: Dow Jones, Jeffrey Roach Organizations: Gross, department's, Analysis, Commerce Department, Federal, Dow Jones, Treasury, Federal Reserve, LPL, Labor Department

☆ Here's why Thursday's post-GDP sell-off may be overdone
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-25 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Stocks sold off Thursday aHoweverfter the latest economic data came in weaker than expected, but some observers say that the reaction was overdone. While the headline GDP number missed expectations, it nevertheless showed economic growth the Fed could take in stride, they say. He noted that the core parts of GDP, such as consumption growth and residential growth, were "quite good." "Stagflation is a combination of stagnant growth and high inflation," Nick continued. "I think the earnings backdrop has been very supportive," Lee told CNBC's " Closing Bell " on Thursday.

Persons: Stocks, Dow Jones, Chris Zaccarelli, Brian Nick, Nick, we're, Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg, Fundstrat's Tom Lee, Lee, CNBC's, Jeff Cox Organizations: Federal Reserve, Independent, Alliance, Dow Jones, Treasury, Macro, Wolfe Research Locations: U.S

☆ GDP report Thursday expected to show economy still growing at a solid pace
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-24 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Gross domestic product, the sum of all goods and services produced across the sprawling U.S. economy, is expected to post a 2.4% annualized growth rate for the first quarter, according to the Dow Jones consensus forecast. If that estimate is accurate, it would mark a step down from the 3.4% growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2023 and just a touch less than last year's 2.5% full-year growth rate. "The U.S. economy is still very resilient, supported by a solid labor market that continues to support robust income growth and in turn, consumer spending activity," EY-Parthenon chief economist Gregory Daco said. "We are seeing a little bit of cooling in terms of the consumer spending momentum. But there isn't any form of retrenchment that would be alarming in terms of future income trends and in terms of future consumer spending trends."

Persons: Dow, Gregory Daco, Daco, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Spencer Hill Organizations: Wall, Gross, Atlanta Federal, Commerce, Commerce Department Locations: U.S, Atlanta

☆ Why the Fed keeping rates higher for longer may not be such a bad thing
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-24 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

So the question is, are we going to have issues if rates remain higher for longer?" But financial markets, despite a recent 5.5% selloff for the S&P 500, have largely held up amid the higher-rate landscape. Higher rates can be a good signHistory tells differing stories about the consequences of a hawkish Fed, both for markets and the economy. Higher rates are generally a good thing so long as they're associated with growth. Futures market pricing implies a fed funds rate of 4.32% by December 2025, indicating a higher rate trajectory.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Mandel Ngan, Quincy Krosby, Krosby, Paul Volcker, David Kelly, Kelly, —, Goldman Sachs, Loretta Mester Organizations: Federal Reserve, Financial, Afp, Getty, LPL, Fed, Asset Management, Market, Cleveland Fed, European Union Locations: Washington , DC

☆ Would the Fed really hike rates here? This is what would have to happen
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-20 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Though it was unthinkable just a short time ago, the question of what it would take the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates further is gaining increasing attention. New York Fed President John Williams faced questioning Thursday about hiking and said he doesn't expect that to happen, but noted that it's always an option. "Basically, if the data were telling us that we would need higher interest rates to achieve our goal, then we would obviously want to do that." Making the same mistake as the 1970s central bank — hiking rates to fight inflation, then cutting prematurely and allowing inflation to return — is a sensitive issue for the Powell Fed. Chances are low, for now So far, only Fed Governor Michelle Bowman has given any credence to the notion of raising rates.

Persons: John Williams, it's, Williams, Jerome Powell, Philip Jefferson, Powell, Nicholas Colas, Colas, Michelle Bowman, Bowman, Esther George Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, New York Fed, Summit, DataTrek, CME, Kansas City, CNBC Locations: Washington, Kansas

☆ Something strange has been happening with jobless claims numbers lately
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-19 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

That's because most of the past several weeks have shown that first-time claims for unemployment benefits haven't fluctuated at all — as in zero. "Initial claims for unemployment insurance are state programs, with 50 state rules, hundreds of offices, and 50 websites to file. Weather, seasonality, holidays, and economic vibrations drive the number of people filing claims from week to week," he added. Indeed, a Labor Department spokesperson noted that while the string of 212,000 prints on the jobless claims data is "uncommon," it would not be considered anomalous. The Labor Department official also pointed out that new seasonal factors to the claims data were announced a month ago.

Persons: Jim Bianco, Tracey Ryniec, Jim Organizations: Labor Department, Bianco Research, Zacks Investment Research, Labor, Federal Reserve Locations: New York City

☆ Wall Street pushes out rate-cut expectations, sees risk they don't start until March 2025
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-17 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

If there was any doubt before, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has pretty much cemented the likelihood that there won't be interest rate reductions anytime soon. Now, Wall Street is wondering if the central bank will cut at all this year. "My sense is they need two, probably three consecutive months of inflation numbers that are consistent with that 2% target. Market pricing for rate cuts has been highly volatile in recent weeks as Wall Street has chased fluctuating Fed rhetoric. As for a second rate cut, there was a tilt toward one in December, but that remains an open question.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, there's, They've, Mark Zandi, Zandi Organizations: Financial, Moody's, Fed Locations: Washington , U.S

☆ Watch Fed Chair Powell speak live during a policy forum in Washington
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-16 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

[The stream is slated to start at 1:15 p.m. Please refresh the page if you do not see a player above at that time.] Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks Wednesday to the Wilson Center's Washington Forum on the Canadian Economy, in what will likely be his last policy speech before the next central bank meeting. The appearance comes with markets expecting the Fed to keep its benchmark borrowing rate steady until at least September. Recent higher than expected inflation readings have forced investors to recalibrate expectations that the Fed would lower interest rates steadily this year.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Wilson, Powell, Read Organizations: Bank of Canada, Tiff, Wilson, Fed, CNBC, YouTube Locations: Canadian, Canada

☆ Fed Chair Powell says there has been a 'lack of further progress' this year on inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-16 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks during a press conference following a closed two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rate policy at the Federal Reserve in Washington, D.C., on Dec. 13, 2023. Since July 2023, the Fed has kept its benchmark interest rate in a target range between 5.25%-5.5%, the highest in 23 years. Powell added that until inflation shows more progress, "We can maintain the current level of restriction for as long as needed." The comments follow inflation data through the first three months of 2024 that has been higher than expected. The benchmark 2-year note , which is especially sensitive to Fed rate moves, briefly topped 5%, while the benchmark 10-year yield rose 3 basis points.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, hasn't Organizations: Federal, Committee, Federal Reserve, Washington , D.C, Fed, Treasury Locations: Washington ,, U.S, Canada

☆ Retail sales jumped 0.7% in March, much higher than expected
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-15 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Excluding auto-related receipts, retail sales jumped 1.1%, also well ahead of the estimate for a 0.5% increase. An increase in gas prices helped push the headline retail sales number higher, with sales up 2.1% on the month at service stations. Resilient consumer spending has helped keep the economy afloat despite higher interest rates and concerns over stubborn inflation. Consumer spending accounts for nearly 70% of U.S. economic output so it is critical to continued growth in gross domestic product. Stronger consumer spending could cause the Fed to hold off longer on cuts, said Andrew Hunter, deputy chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics.

Persons: Dow, Andrew Hunter, Hunter Organizations: Commerce Department, Labor Department, Sporting, Federal Reserve, Capital Economics Locations: Iran, Israel

☆ Surging inflation fears sent markets tumbling and Fed officials scrambling
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-13 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

Energy prices, which have been a major factor in the past two months' inflation readings, pushed higher on signs of further geopolitical turmoil. Minutes released Wednesday from the March Fed meeting showed officials were concerned about higher inflation and looking for more convincing evidence it is on a steady path lower. Sticky price CPI entails items such as housing, motor vehicle insurance and medical care services, while flexible price is concentrated in food, energy and vehicle prices. "If that's the case, you would require a decent amount of unemployment to get inflation all the way to 2.0%." That's why Furman and others have pushed for the Fed to rethink it's determined commitment to 2% inflation.

Persons: Spencer Platt, —, Stocks, Jason Furman, We've, Israel, Jim Paulsen, Wells, Substack, Paulsen, Furman, Barack Obama, Jamie Dimon, John Williams, Susan Collins, it's, Larry Fink Organizations: Getty, Investors, Dow Jones, CNBC, of Economic Advisers, New York Fed, National Federation of Independent Business, Labor Department, JPMorgan, University of Michigan's, Boston, Commerce, CPI, Citigroup, Fed, Atlanta Fed, Dallas Fed, Harvard, BlackRock Locations: Manhattan, New York City, Iran, Israel

☆ BlackRock's Larry Fink sees Fed cutting rates twice this year but missing 2% inflation goal
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-12 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

(Photo by Sean Gallup/Getty Images)BlackRock CEO Larry Fink predicted Friday that the Federal Reserve likely will still cut interest rates this year but won't meet its inflation target. A report earlier this week showed inflation running at a 3.5% annual rate. Still, Fink expects the Fed to do some reductions this year while it may have to concede that inflation will remain elevated. "Inflation has moderated and we've always said inflation is going to moderate. Fink spoke the same day BlackRock reported quarterly earnings that topped Wall Street expectations both for profit and revenue.

Persons: Larry Fink, Sean Gallup, it's, Fink, we're, " Fink, we've Organizations: UNITED, Expo City, United Arab Emirates, Getty, Federal Reserve, Fed, Federal, BlackRock Locations: DUBAI, EMIRATES, Expo City Dubai, Dubai, United Arab

☆ Jamie Dimon warns that inflation, wars and Fed policy pose major threats ahead
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-12 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

JPMorgan Chase CEO and Chairman Jamie Dimon gestures as he speaks during the U.S. Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee oversight hearing on Wall Street firms, on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., December 6, 2023. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned Friday that multiple challenges, primarily inflation and war, threaten an otherwise positive economic backdrop. "Many economic indicators continue to be favorable," the head of the the largest U.S. bank by assets said in announcing first-quarter earnings results. An "unsettling" global landscape including "terrible wars and violence" is one such factor introducing uncertainty both into JPMorgan's business and the broader economy, Dimon said. However, the bank warned net interest income for this year could be slightly below what Wall Street is expecting and shares were off nearly 2% in premarket trading.

Persons: Jamie, JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, Dimon Organizations: JPMorgan Chase, U.S . Senate Banking, Housing, Urban Affairs, Wall, Capitol, JPMorgan Locations: Washington , U.S, U.S

☆ Wholesale prices rose 0.2% in March, less than expected
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-11 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

A measure of wholesale prices increased less than expected in March, providing some potential relief from worries that inflation will hold higher for longer than many economists had expected. Excluding food and energy, the core PPI also rose 0.2%, meeting expectations. The release comes a day after the BLS reported that consumer prices again rose more than expected in March, raising concerns that the Federal Reserve will be unable to lower interest rates anytime soon. However, wholesale prices for final demand food and goods less food and energy climbed 0.8% and 0.1%, respectively. That contrasted with the consumer price index, which showed gasoline up 1.7% on the month.

Persons: Dow Jones Organizations: Dow, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, PPI, BLS, Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Group

☆ Why car insurance costs are skyrocketing and leading to higher inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-11 | by ( Michael Wayland | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

RobertCrum | Getty ImagesDETROIT – Skyrocketing auto insurance costs helped contribute to inflation accelerating at a faster-than-expected pace in March and are adding to the ever more expensive costs for U.S. vehicle owners. Auto insurance costs have been on the rise for some time, growing every month as part of the index since December 2021. However, auto insurance remains a small portion of the CPI, with a 2.85% weighting. watch nowThe insurance cost increases on inflation come more than two years after the Biden administration largely blamed used car prices for pushing inflation higher in January 2022. The cost of vehicle insurance — which is mandatory in almost every state — varies by provider, driver, coverage and location.

Persons: Sean Tucker, Kelley, David Sampson, Sampson, Biden, Mitchell, Power, —, it's, Price, Mark Garrett, — CNBC's Robert Ferris, Jeff Cox Organizations: Getty, DETROIT, U.S, Auto, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, American, Casualty Insurance Association, CNBC, Progressive, Power's U.S . Auto Insurance, State Farm, Liberty Mutual Locations: U.S, Power's U.S, Geico, .

☆ Fed wants more confidence that inflation is moving toward 2% target, meeting minutes indicate
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-10 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

watch nowFederal Reserve officials at their March meeting expressed concern that inflation wasn't moving lower quickly enough, though they still expected to cut interest rates at some point this year. "Participants generally noted their uncertainty about the persistence of high inflation and expressed the view that recent data had not increased their confidence that inflation was moving sustainably down to 2 percent," the minutes said. In what apparently was a lengthy discussion about inflation at the meeting, officials said geopolitical turmoil and rising energy prices remain risks that could push inflation higher. U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell holds a press conference following a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rate policy in Washington, U.S., March 20, 2024. That part of the discussion was partly relevant considering the release came the same day that the Fed received more bad news on inflation.

Persons: FOMC, Jerome Powell, Elizabeth Frantz Organizations: Federal Reserve, Market, Fed, U.S . Federal, Federal, Committee, Reuters Locations: China, U.S, Washington , U.S

☆ Hot inflation data pushes market’s rate cut expectations to September
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-10 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Three months of inflation data have brought those expectations back down to earth. "Not that you've put a pin in inflation getting to the Fed's target, but it's not happening imminently." The 2-year Treasury note , which is especially sensitive to Fed rate moves, jumped to 4.93%, an increase of nearly 0.2 percentage point. The pricing in of seven rate cuts earlier this year was completely at odds with indications from Fed officials. However, when policymakers in December raised their "dot plot" indicator to three rate cuts from two projected in September, it set off a Wall Street frenzy.

Persons: Michael M, Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab, you've, There's, Today's, Phillip Neuhart, Joseph LaVorgna, Schwab's Sonders, Sonders Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Santiago, Getty, Federal, Labor, CPI, Fed, Traders, First, Bank Wealth, Dow Jones, Treasury, Nikko Securities, Atlanta Fed Locations: New York City

☆ Consumer prices rose 3.5% from a year ago in March, more than expected
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-10 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Tom Williams | Cq-roll Call, Inc. | Getty ImagesThe consumer price index accelerated at a faster than expected pace in March, pushing inflation higher and likely keeping the Federal Reserve on hold with interest rates. Shelter and energy costs drove the increase on the all-items index. Food prices increased just 0.1% on the month and were up 2.2% on a year-over-year basis. The measure for meat, fish, poultry and eggs climbed 0.9%, pushed by a 4.6% jump in egg prices. Elsewhere, used vehicle prices declined 1.1% and medical care services prices rose 0.6%.

Persons: Tom Williams, Dow Jones Organizations: Washington , D.C, Cq, Inc, Getty, Federal Reserve, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI Locations: Washington ,

☆ A crucial report Wednesday is expected to show little progress against inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-09 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Scott Olson | Getty ImagesA closely watched Labor Department report due Wednesday is expected to show that not much progress is being made in the battle to bring down inflation. To be sure, inflation has come down dramatically from its peak above 9% in June 2022. That showed headline inflation running at 2.5% and the core rate at 2.8% in February. For their part, markets have grown nervous about the state of inflation and how it will affect rate policy. "I don't see a whole lot here that is going to move things magically the way they want to go," North said.

Persons: Scott Olson, We're, Dan North, North, they've Organizations: Getty, Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Allianz Trade North America, Fed, Commerce, PCE Locations: Chicago , Illinois

☆ Small business optimism hits 11-year low as inflation fears won't go away
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-09 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Small business confidence hit its lowest level in more than 11 years for March as proprietors worried that inflation is still very much a problem. A quarter of all respondents reported that rising costs were the biggest problem. "Small business optimism has reached the lowest level since 2012 as owners continue to manage numerous economic headwinds," NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg said. "Inflation has once again been reported as the top business problem on Main Street and the labor market has only eased slightly." A quarter of all respondents cited inflation, and in particular higher input and labor costs, as their most pressing issue.

Persons: Bill Dunkelberg Organizations: Costco Wholesale, National Federation of Independent Business, The Labor Department Locations: Colchester , Vermont

☆ Costco selling as much as $200 million in gold bars monthly, Wells Fargo estimates
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-09 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Gold has turned into money for Costco , where yellow metal sales begun last year have turned into a cash cow for the big-box retailer. In fact, sales are so brisk that analysts at Wells Fargo expect revenue "may now be running at" $100 million to $200 million a month, a rapid acceleration since bullion hit the warehouse club late in the summer of 2023. "The accelerating frequency of Reddit posts, quick on-line sell-outs of product, and COST's robust monthly eComm sales suggests a sharp uptick in momentum since the launch." Costco is selling 1-ounce bars made of nearly pure 24-karat gold. The government is on pace for a $2 trillion deficit this year, adding to a total debt load that has surpassed $34.6 trillion.

Persons: Gold, Edward Kelly Organizations: Costco Locations: Wells

☆ The market again has adjusted its view on rate cuts, with as few as two now expected
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-08 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

"While investors seem to be anxiously awaiting easing monetary policy, the current environment does not quite scream 'rate cuts!'" That sentiment has manifested itself lately in market pricing. That same day, the Labor Department will release the CPI report, which is expected to show the headline inflation rate rising 3.4% in March on a year-over-year basis, per Dow Jones. This is nonetheless "the right time to cut rates," wrote David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management. "What has underpinned this market is the promise of a series of rate cuts including March, and now it has dwindled to just a few rate cuts.

Persons: Glenmede, Dow Jones, David Kelly, Kelly, Nicholas Colas, Colas, Ed Yardeni, nonfarm, Quincy Krosby, Krosby Organizations: Federal Reserve, Investors, Labor Department, Asset Management, Fed, DataTrek, Yardeni, LPL

☆ Job growth zoomed in March as payrolls jumped by 303,000 and unemployment dropped to 3.8%
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-05 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Job creation in March easily topped expectations in a sign of continued acceleration for what has been a bustling and resilient labor market. The unemployment rate edged lower to 3.8%, as expected, even though the labor force participation rate moved higher to 62.7%, a gain of 0.2 percentage point from February. "This report and the February report showed some broadening in terms of job creation, which is a very good sign." Stocks have tumbled this week amid concerns that a strong labor market and resilient economy could keep the central bank on hold for longer than expected. Correction: The unemployment rate edged lower to 3.8%.

Persons: Nonfarm, Dow Jones, Lauren Goodwin, Jerome Powell Organizations: Dow, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Wall, Retail, New York Life Investments, Federal Reserve, Stock

☆ Fed caution may be justified if the labor market starts to deteriorate. Here's why that could happen
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-05 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

A strong jobs outlook raises the potential of greater inflation pressures, meaning the central bank might be less eager to ease policy. Indeed, there are some signs that the labor market's strength may not be as robust as the headline nonfarm payrolls numbers indicate. Economists both on Wall Street and at the Fed suspect swelling immigration numbers are playing a role in boosting employment and keeping the labor market so tight. With political clamoring intensifying for the U.S. to tighten its border controls, the resilience of the labor market then could be jeopardized depending on how large a role immigration is playing. "Another strong report raises the potential that the deterioration in labor markets we have been expecting will be avoided.

Persons: nonfarm, Seema Shah, Shah, Mohamed El, There's, Goldman Sachs, Michelle Bowman, Bowman, Andrew Hollenhorst Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor, Asset Management, Allianz, Fed, CNBC, Wall, Congressional, Citigroup, Citi Locations: it's, Italy, U.S, South America, Central America, Mexico

☆ Fed Governor Bowman says additional rate hike could be needed if inflation stays high
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-05 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Noting a number of potential upside risks to inflation, Bowman said policymakers need to be careful not to ease policy too quickly. "Reducing our policy rate too soon or too quickly could result in a rebound in inflation, requiring further future policy rate increases to return inflation to 2 percent over the longer run." The speech, to the Shadow Open Market Committee, comes with markets on edge about the near-term future of Fed policy. Weighing inflation risks, she said that supply-side improvements that helped bring numbers down this year may not have the same impact going forward. Fed officials will get their next look at inflation data Wednesday, when the Labor Department releases the March consumer price index report.

Persons: Michelle Bowman, Bowman, Jerome Powell, Raphael Bostic, Neel Kashkari Organizations: Federal, of Governors, Market, Committee, Atlanta Fed, CNBC, Minneapolis Fed, Fed, Labor Department Locations: New York

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